May 24, 2022

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What is the loss to China of supporting Russia? | The world

The leaders of the two countries met in Beijing and expressed their closeness. The meeting, which took place on the sidelines of the Winter Olympics, was marked by reports of Xi Jinping’s support for Moscow and its national security concerns.

In a statement issued after the meeting, the two countries said, “Friendship between the two countries [Rússia e China] It has no limits, no ‘restricted’ areas for cooperation “and is aimed at” combating the intervention of external forces in the internal affairs of sovereign nations. ”

But since Vladimir Putin officially recognized the independence of the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk and launched military operations in the neighboring country, declarations of support China Became less balanced and sensible.

According to analysts who consulted with BBC News Brazil, Beijing was cautious in its handling of the war. Ukraine It reflects the country’s fear of possible economic and political retaliation.

What is the status China In conflict?

From Russia Began sending its troops to the border with UkraineAt the end of 2021, the China Accepted the pro-Moscow text of the measure.

In the weeks leading up to the invasion, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Moscow’s national security concerns were “legitimate” and “should be taken seriously and discussed.”

Police officer patrolling the streets of Ukraine (Photo: Getty Images)

“Both Russia Such as China We need to create a hostile environment for the United States and find a common ground with this ambition, “said Alexandre Uhra, education coordinator for the Brazilian Center for International Business Studies at ESPM.

Vicente Ferro Jr., political scientist and researcher at the Asian Studies Laboratory at the University of Sவோo Paulo (USP), has an ideological component in the approximation between the two forces.

“Both compete against some degree of political liberalism and accuse it of trying to ‘export’ Western political models inappropriately to other societies and cultural contexts. Both political liberalism and, implicitly, representative democracy are not global values. The West is a tool for geopolitical purposes,” he says.

After the official start of the Russian military operation Ukraine Last week, the Chinese government said it believed in “sovereignty and regional unity of all nations” but expressed that view. Russia There are “legitimate security concerns” that need to be “seriously and adequately addressed.”

On Wednesday (02/03), Beijing still ruled out the possibility of imposing sanctions Russia Economic fines announced by the United States and Europe were classified as illegal.

“We do not recognize financial sanctions, especially unilaterally initiated sanctions, because they do not work well and have no legal basis,” said Guo Shuking, chairman of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. China, At a press conference. “We will continue to maintain regular economic and trade exchanges with the parties involved,” he said.

Most notably, The China And he did not use the word “invasion” in any of his announcements. Russia At Ukraine.

Surprisingly, however, Beijing boycotted the UN Security Council vote condemning Russia’s invasion. Ukraine.

The country also wants to abstain from the second resolution voted on in the UN General Assembly. The text, ratified by 141 member states, criticizes the Russian government for its military actions and classifies the recognition of the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as a “violation of regional integrity and sovereignty.” UkraineContrary to the principles of the United Nations Charter. ”

China is a historic ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin – Photo: Getty Images by Sergei Kuneyev / Sputnik / AFP

At the same time, one of the most significant facts about the reaction China The reason for the conflict is that no words came from President Xi Jinping – all statements were released by representatives of the ministries.

What should Beijing miss?

According to experts in international politics, the biggest fear China By supporting Moscow, it is undermining its economic relations with Europe and the United States.

“The China Europe has great economic interests and its support for Putin should not be so overt as to provoke negative reactions from France, Germany or the continent in general, “said American Bruce Jones, director of the International Order Program. Strategy from the Brookings Institution Think Tank.

Overall, The China According to the European Union (EU), about US $ 420 billion (R $ 2.1 trillion) worth of goods were exported to Europe by 2020, and this was the group’s main source of imports. This amount is behind the US $ 452 billion (R $ 2.2 trillion) trade with the Chinese power to the United States.

The Chinese market was the third largest destination for European exports in 2020, accounting for 10.5% of EU exports.

The Chinese government fears that active and vocal support for Russian military action will encourage it to further expand its trade partners in Europe and the United States.

At the same time, he fears that the worsening sanctions against Moscow will damage his own economic ties with the Russian market.

The Russia Is also an important trading partner for China And in recent years the two countries have been further strengthening relations.

According to Chinese customs data, total trade between the powers increased by 35.9% last year, and Moscow serves as a major source of oil, gas, coal and agricultural products for Beijing.

“There is an expectation that business relationships will deepen China The impact of sanctions imposed by the West can be partially offset Russia“However, the extent of this devaluation is not yet known and is a side effect of sanctions on Chinese companies that have business relations with both companies,” he said. Russia Just like in the West. ”

According to experts, China’s biggest fear in supporting Moscow today is to damage its economic ties with Europe and the United States.

According to experts, sanctions against Russia Tensions can build up due to commodity prices, especially oil and gas.

However, the breakdown of trade relations with Europe and the United States could have further repercussions for Beijing. “The amount of trade between China And Western countries is more than the size of the trade China With Russia“, Says Ferraro Jr.

Against the internal interests

In addition to the economic impact, The China Yet political interests are at stake.

From a geopolitical point of view, the Xi Jinping government seeks to avoid contradictions within itself, as Chinese leaders have repeatedly said that the country should not interfere in the internal affairs of others and that other countries should not interfere in their own internal affairs. Affairs ..

To Alexandre Uhra, The China Do not recognize the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and as soon as the decision was announced, Putin began to soften his speech in favor of Moscow.

“The China It also has areas of greater autonomy and independence, such as Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang, and sees the recognition of the independence of separatist regions. Ukraine It’s a shame for their inner interests, “he said.

According to Uhara, there are fears that the Chinese government will support it Russia At UkraineOther countries may take Putin-like approaches to their own territories.

And by abstaining from voting in the United Nations against RussiaBeijing may try to signal its true position on this issue to other parts of the world.

“It does not represent a veto against such action Russia, Which has different policy implications. This may indicate a signal Russia That China Concerned neo-hippies and their global warming, i’ll tell ya. ”

“But it can signal the developing world and the global South China We do not condone the intervention of big powers. ”

At the same time, when the Chinese government rejected the imposition of sanctions RussiaNowadays, he knows that if he decides to take Taiwan by force, he can get a similar treatment, which would be an expensive and bloody surgery.

The island declared itself an independent republic in 1911 and established itself as a democracy China It considers it an inseparable part of its territory and in recent years it has been openly involved in the reunification project.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a news conference in Beijing. China He never believed that sanctions were the best way to solve problems between nations.

As for the Chinese Communist Party, it is also concerned about how the current crisis may affect its own people and worldview.

For this reason, the government manipulates and controls information about the situation Ukraine In your journal and on social media.

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