With less than three months to go before the deadline for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan, countries such as Italy and Germany are looking forward to their timetable, and there are no soldiers on local platforms – the US told Reuters this week that they could follow the same path, and in a few decades Afghan Can end up being in the soil for two decades. Despite promises of international support, politically or militarily, Afghans face the threat of a Taliban return to power, the same scene as the October 2001 NATO intervention (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).
The decision to withdraw international troops from Afghanistan was made under Donald Trump, Following the agreement with the Taliban in February 2020, To date its details are not clear and it is pointed out that it is very favorable to extremist militants.
According to the text, the group will do so if the Taliban thwarts attacks on the United States and NATO from the Afghan region – while fighting with local Islamic State cells. The Taliban should engage in peace talks with Kabul authorities. This process Started in September last year Today it is stagnant, and issues such as the transfer of prisoners and the political system to be adopted in the future remain open.
“Closing this agreement was a good choice, but fulfilling our role was a terrible decision, and the other side did not follow through on its obligations,” said Annie Forshire, Afghanistan’s deputy assistant secretary of state for foreign affairs.
The date set by Trump for the withdrawal of the remaining 3,500 U.S. soldiers in the country has been postponed by Joe Biden until May 11 this year, the 20th anniversary of the al-Qaeda attack on New York. Provoked the start of a long war. The Pentagon has not released how many troops are in Central Asia at this time, and says 650 of them will remain after the official withdrawal for the ambassadors’ protection.
The Taliban began at the same time that Biden announced a goal to prevent further attacks on American soil One of its biggest military attacks. In a matter of weeks, the militants have taken control of much of the Afghan region, expanding its sphere of influence every day. In March, a report by the Council on International Relations indicated that the group was stronger than in October 2001, when it still ruled Afghanistan militarily.
“I see this as a bad sign for the future. Their attacks are sustainable and widespread, putting pressure on government forces,” said Annie Borbshire. “I think they can predict a military victory over the summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the US withdrawal. If they win, we can say that this will be a blow to the peace process and there will be no negotiations.
Even with international support for peace efforts, a recent shift in the focus of the US government’s foreign policy has brought an additional element of uncertainty: in April, when announcing the withdrawal, Biden identified himself as the United States. “We must fight the wars of the next 20 years, not the last 20 years.”.
– The Afghan government and the Taliban will continue to confront each other as they always have, regardless of the US shift to other foreign policy priorities. What we need to see is how flexible the Afghan government will be without the psychological factor of US presence and support, ”Andrew Watkins, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group’s think tank, told GLOBO.
Annie Forschemer, now affiliated with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, points out that Fiden’s statement ignores Afghanistan’s emphasis on “priority” topics such as Asia’s regional security and the new strategic axis for Washington on the State Department’s agenda.
“I saw this situation as an unfortunate calculation. There is no such thing as deciding which war you will fight, ”he declared.
In Pakistan, India’s neighbor, the White House’s first-ever escalation of violence on Afghan soil could raise extremist groups in border areas, fueling instability on Islamabad’s side. UN According to the High Commission for Refugees, if the civil war escalates, there will be a huge influx of refugees – today, 1.7 million people live in Pakistan. Local unrest could also affect countries such as Iran and China, which appear to be US priorities on the border with Afghanistan.
The notion that led to the intervention is also a factor in the fight against global terrorism. Today, there are active Islamic State cells within Afghanistan, which, although no longer in control of the territories, were responsible for the recent massacres: May 8, Group attack on a girls’ school in Kabul Eighty-five people died, mostly young people between the ages of 11 and 15.
“They no longer functioned as a paramilitary force, but as covert cells and asymmetrical attacks. The combined elements now operate in Kabul, Parwan and Paclan provinces, possibly across the country, ”Watkins points out. – The group is now benefiting from the Taliban ‘s decision not to take responsibility for acts of violence against civilians. The Islamic State has also begun to claim responsibility for certain acts that could further destabilize the security situation.
Although they see as much as possible an agreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban, including actions against the Islamic State, analysts who interviewed Globo say the intensity of the current civil war is short-lived – and this could lead to a conflict over what the country will look like after the withdrawal of international powers.
– I believe there are common points for both sides in the conflict. The Taliban, which wants military victory after the US withdrawal, thinks that if the government and the Afghan people realize that they can fight against them, they can choose to achieve some of their goals through negotiations – Borschemer pointed out.
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