With the exception of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, Latin America turned to Russia. Invasion of UkraineBut Moscow could cause its sleeve and surprise with “symbolic” provocation in the region in a bid to challenge the United States. Across Latin America, the US sphere of influence, in search of allies.
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed President Jair Bolsanaro in Moscow, where he had already met with Argentine Alberto Fernandez, who told him that his country would be “the gateway to Latin America”.
But when the tanks entered Ukraine on Thursday, both, like most countries in the region, refused to use the armed forces.
Not surprisingly, Michael Shifter, chairman of the Inter-American Dialogue Thought Group “The trade relationship with Russia is very small and the risk associated with it is not worth the benefit,” he told the AFP.
Putin has three allies in the region – Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua – who support him more than anything “outside of ideological and exchange interests,” said Christopher Sabadini, a researcher with the Saddam House think tank.
On the same day that the invasion of Ukraine began, an official Russian delegation led by the Speaker of the House of Commons Vyacheslav Volodin arrived in Nicaragua to discuss economic and military issues a week before meeting with President Daniel Ortega. With Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov.
“Barking dog does not bite”
Evan Ellis explains that Russia, which threatened military mobilization in Cuba and Venezuela a month ago, is “trying to show that it is not isolated internationally and to strengthen its alliance to complicate the US strategic position.” , Professor of Latin American Studies at the Institute for Strategic Research at the United States Army War College.
According to Ellis, it has been said many times that the Kremlin is “more likely” to do something symbolic.
But the “barking dog will not bite,” says the expert, who considers it “something substantial or well-planned, with the intention of projecting a threat.”
“Signed an agreement to show some kind of limited military provocation or ability to position itself militarily in the region,” he explains.
AtMilitary attack in Ukraine In the words of US President Joe Biden, sanctions were imposed on Russia for causing “immediate and long-term” economic damage.
Ellis says Russia “does not have the resources or logistics to maintain a substantial military presence in the United States” as it severely affects its oil exports and financial structure under sanctions.
China in ambush
In recent years, Latin America has become more fragmented politically, which “further diversifies relations not only with Russia, but also with China,” Sabadini says. The new war “will put these new relationships to the test.”
The United States, which has been going through the worst moments of relations with Russia and China, is balancing to strengthen ties in the region, while at the same time fighting corruption in some countries, especially in Central America, with waves of immigrants out of poverty. Those looking for a better future.
Rising wheat prices, unprecedented achievements since 2008, and oil prices as a result of the Ukraine war will be particularly noticeable in these Central American and Caribbean countries.
“For them, the deficit could mean a significant rise in import prices and the risk of increasing public discontent,” Sabadini warns.
Schifter says Russia will become more economically dependent on China, which has long-term goals in Latin America, “just as it makes the United States its main economic partner.”
In this war, Beijing will “maintain a very neutral position and examine what its rivals are doing,” he added. “It will closely monitor the evolution of this crisis, expanding its own influence in the region by exploiting any weakness in the United States, which is in dire need of economic support.”
See pictures of the first day of the conflict
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