Less than a week Legislative elections in Portugal, Scheduled for Sunday (30), shows a situation of uncertainty over voting preferences. For the first time, two polls It pointed to a small advantage for the center-right PSD (Social Democratic Party), the largest opposition party..
The difference with the Socialist Party, which is less than 1 percent and still on the verge of error, indicates a situation Post-election alliances are difficult to rule the country. According to Antonio Costa Pinto, coordinator of the University of Lisbon’s Institute of Social Sciences, the Socialists in power since 2015 have had one more victory, but by a small margin.
As Prime Minister Antonio Costa’s relationship with his former left partners has deteriorated -PCP (Portuguese Communist Party) and Bloco de Esquerda-, the solution may be understanding with the center-right. However, according to the professor who spoke to reporters at the Foreign Press Association in Portugal, this evidence will ultimately result in a “one-time government”.
Rui Rio, PSD President, is known for his moderate and central positions. For the past two years, it has been famous for making possible the proposals of the socialist administration. As he took charge of the Social Democrats, the party voted in favor of almost two-thirds of the government’s proposals in the last assembly.
According to Costa Pinto, the presumptive position of the main name of the opposition makes it difficult to try to work with the socialist strategy. Voter fears about the rise of the right And a final Withdrawal of austerity policies Implemented after the 2011 International Financial Recovery.
“Even if the Socialists or the Social Democrats win, the truth is that Seka will become essential to the formation of any government,” says Costa Pinto, who, according to opinion polls, could become a far-right party. The third largest Portuguese political power.
Legend and its current subsidiary only – Andre Ventura, who finished third in the last presidential election – In addition to allegations of discrimination against ethnic and social minorities, controversial proposals such as the chemical castration of pedophiles and the abolition of the death penalty are accumulating.
What did the Socialist Party do wrong to lose its comfortable presence in the election? Formally, technically, nothing went wrong. Socialist Party government Responded fundamentally to the epidemiological situation with positive indicators. In view of the vaccine, more [o país já tem mais de 90% da população completamente vacinada]. Based on economic indicators, it was able to provide social support to sectors in crisis. In terms of unemployment, Portugal currently stands at 6.3%, which means we are close to full employment.
What can explain the fall? There are a lot of counting subjective factors in Portugal. It should not be forgotten that there are a very significant number of voters in the country who do not see themselves on the left-right level. It is less in favor of political parties. Many things happened. First, there was six years of socialist rule. Currently, the opposition is less divided. Rui Rio, as the main center-right leader, is already in greater solidarity with the party in these elections, with more chances of winning elections or an alternative to the government.
Rio is also moderate, so even the PS campaign, based on warnings of a threat coming from the right, is less capable of working. There is an ambiguity in the PS’s election campaign, which claims that it sometimes deals with the left and tarnishes the right, and sometimes its former partners on the left. The Socialist Party is in trouble in this election campaign.
How are the voters Left? Voters from the Communist Party, the Left Bloc and the Socialist Party favored these parliamentary deals. We observe that the talk that the votes of the Socialists should grow enormously is a way of punishing the former partners of the Left. [por terem reprovado o Orçamento e provocado eleições antecipadas], Was only partially successful.
Obviously, the Left constituency will be punished by the Left electorate, but this is not enough for the Socialist Party to grow electronically. In 2019, under the best circumstances for the PS regime, the Socialists received 36% of the vote. [sem conseguir chegar à maioria absoluta].
What is the possibility of government today after that? Election? The most plausible hypothesis is that if the Socialist Party wins these elections by 2 or 3 percentage points, the PS will form a minority government and, as in the past, move away from the credibility of the Social Democratic government. This will obviously be a term government because the right wing will not hesitate to try to put forward elections to come to power with the slightest political opportunity.
If the PSD wins, the Liberal initiative will try to form a coalition government with the CDS. [mais à direita], Finally tried and, contrary to what they say, a parliamentary deal with Seka. It can be unstable and strongly opposed. These are both very probable hypotheses, but it seems likely that if Antonio Costa takes first place, he will first try to return to negotiations with the Left Bloc and the Communist Party.
What should happen to Seka, the far-right party? In the last elections, Sega established himself in the Portuguese political framework. In municipal cases [em setembro de 2021], Already got satisfactory results In the legislature it would be 5% or 6%. The big question is whether Sega will become a third party in the Portuguese party system, which is very important from a symbolic point of view. The truth is that in these elections, whoever wins, Seka will become indispensable to form any government.
The Portuguese electoral system makes it difficult for smaller parties to elect representatives in local constituencies, but they have the opportunity in larger metropolitan areas and nearby. In large volumes, with 1.3% you can already have a partner in Lisbon or Porto.
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