December 9, 2022

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If Russia invades Ukraine, Putin will be invaluable. And even in Brazil

Russian President Vladimir Putin (along with Xi Jinping of China on the left) has threatened the invasion of Ukraine, raising fears in the world economy (Credit: Walter Campanado / Agansia Brazil)

The immediate occupation of Ukraine by the powerful Russian military forces will create chaos in the world economy, with a proportion similar to the epidemic of the last two years. A few days ago, US President Joe Biden raised his voice and promised that the attack would come at a huge cost to Vladimir Putin. The problem is that a final war for the Russian leader will not come at a high price. Bye.

Russia is one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, and as the main gas pipeline supplying European housing and industry passes through Ukraine, fuels can be expected to rise worldwide. A barrel of oil, approaching $ 90 today, should cross $ 100 as soon as the first shot is fired across the border. As a result, goods, food and almost all goods – whether industrialized or not – will be affected by war. In addition to inflation, the already irregular supply chain will also be affected.

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This is not the first time that geopolitical tensions in the Northern Hemisphere have wreaked havoc on the Brazilian economy. The weakness of exports and the low competitiveness of the Brazilian industry make Brazil a kind of patient in the ICU.

If the real dollar does not depreciate against the dollar, the impact of potential inflation will not be so worrying. Since inflation has already crossed double digits and interest rates are on an upward trajectory, there is no room for maneuvering to reduce inflation.

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There are still alternative ways to avoid armed conflict. Russia’s dissatisfaction with the possibility of Ukraine’s entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been a source of escalating tensions. Putin does not want to have a neighbor and former Soviet territory under the direct influence of the United States. NATO, which unites the rich nations of the West, has already made it clear that it is not Russia’s responsibility to specify who should or should not be on the group. It is worth recalling that Ukraine was occupied by Russia when Putin supported separatist groups in the Russian-annexed Crimea region over the past decade.

Until an agreement is reached, Russia will deploy more than 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. Brazil believes – or at least it should believe – that the exchange of threats is nothing more than a game of words. If war breaks out, Putin will no doubt pay the price. And we will all pay.

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